In the long run,
the facts are on the side of the optimists.
To paraphrase Martin Luther King Jr., the arc of history bends toward progress. But progress doesn't just happen. People work hard to discover ways forward.
The What Works Initiative
highlights positive outcomes on difficult issues – and how people achieved them.
The official numbers are in: the violent crime rate in America last year – from murders to muggings to carjackings – was the lowest since the FBI began counting in 1936. The drop from the previous year was the biggest single-year decrease in violent crime on record. And this followed major decreases in each of the two preceding years as well. Many experts surmise that violence for the year was in fact lower than it has ever been in this country.
So far, this year looks to be even lower. While last year’s murder rate specifically is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest on record, this year’s is trending 20 percent lower than that.
There are no clear partisan explanations. The big drop began under President Biden and has continued under President Trump. Crime has dropped in diverse cities and regions that have used very different strategies.
In fact, crime is declining to historically low levels all over the developed world. Some pockets of the global South still see rising violence, largely from organized crime. But historians note a centuries-long pattern of decline in interpersonal violence worldwide.
Sources: FBI Uniform Crime Report; Jeff Asher; UN Office on Drugs and Crime